Reading the band
P50 is the central, defensible estimate. P10 is the downside the asset must survive; P90 is the upside the asset is allowed to claim. The width is information about uncertainty, not weakness.
How the band is built
Scenario simulation runs the KRDS layers against parameter distributions and rights states, producing the band and the dominant sensitivities. The dominant sensitivities are the next investment list.
Using the band in a decision
Allocate against P50; capitalize against P10; communicate against the full band. Anyone who quotes only one percentile is not making a defensible argument.
Questions buyers actually ask.
Scenario simulation includes Monte Carlo where appropriate, but also explicit stress scenarios and adversarial cases from the red-team challenge.
Percentile bands are easier to communicate to non-statistical executives and survive board questioning more cleanly.
Yes - typically as rights clear, evidence accumulates, and obsolescence parameters firm up.
Yes. Every input layer carries its evidence tag and the simulation run is reproducible.